The Imponderables

Voting turnout higher than 1984 can mean completely new thinking by voters  not accounted for by pollsters and even parties. This can make sampling of voters for exit polls quite wrong causing large errors.   All polls and exit polls and other anecdotal information indicate a trend in favor of NDA.  Sampling errors can fail to predict large swings. This means NDA may get more than 289 predicted and may even cross 300 315 mark.

Second unknown is the extent of rigging through manipulation of voter lists, EVM hacking, violence and intimidation and distribution of cash and booze. Rigging is not as uncommon as many might think. States like J&K, Bengal, Bihar and UP are quite advanced in rigging. We have never known the extent of rigging since we don’t hold EC to account.

Third unknown: What might congress do when its defeat is official. Congress are terrible losers. They don’t spare even their own  CMs. They have a history of causing riots to pull down their internal rivals. They can go to any extent to further their own careers. They might instigate riots.

The fourth: Since Congress controls the paid media and the paid intellectuals they will battle Modi through media  powered outright lies,  insinuations, and constant stream of abuse and we know that people are gullible.

These then are the imponderables of this election.

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