What might be PM Modi’s game plan for 2019?

Part 6 of series on #modiplan (Final part)

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Links to previous posts in this series

Scenario 2019: 

https://raverantreflect.wordpress.com/2015/12/03/india-scenario-2019/

Criticism of Modi Sarkar:  https://raverantreflect.wordpress.com/2015/11/30/modi-sarkar-areas-of-my-concern/

In praise of Modi Sarkar:  https://raverantreflect.wordpress.com/2015/11/28/modi-sarkar-priority-security-and-economy/

My expectations from Modi Sarkar:  https://raverantreflect.wordpress.com/2015/11/25/pm-modi-my-expectations/

PM Modi confounds both critics and admirers: https://raverantreflect.wordpress.com/2015/11/21/pm-modi-confounding-critics-and-admirers/

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These are updates to my article https://raverantreflect.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/pm-modis-game-planver1.pdf published on Oct 8, 2015 and some updates . The above article was written before the Bihar Elections and the stunning defeat of Modi.

Update (December 3, 2015) : Gujarat civic polls has seen BJP maintaining its hold in urban areas while Congress has made inroads in rural areas.

What might be PM Modi’s game plan?

Does the scenario presented in the part 5 assure Modi a win in 2019? My answer is NO. Let us see why.

He won the 2014 election because of

1) Strong and wide spread anti-Congress sentiments

2) He embodied aspirations for better life of all and his Gujarat track record gave him credibility

3) Support by all those who stand for Hindu civilization as a soul of India. mainly BJP and RSS cadres and other supporters

4) Social Media helped consolidate all above and overcome main stream media’s campiagn against him

Despite these factors causing a wave , BJP could get just 31% of votes in the last election. In a first past the post system of elections 31% votes may be enough to win large number of seats especially if there is no strong second party. We can infer that without any one or two of above factors he would not have won decisively. I call it a Tripod phenomenon.

By 2019 :

1) Anger towards Congress will have gone down considerably as long as Congress doesn’t do something really foolish and terrible. Also it will most likely be a non-crisis situation for India.

2) Lives of a large section of poor will have improved. (Please read the Scenario 2019 post for more details). But gratitude is not an emotion which lasts long and absence of justice won’t help matter. Despite many theories, I think that Indians don’t vote for good work. Not for the kind of good work the economists and business people favor.

3) Many of those who stand for the Hindu soul of India will have been in angry or despondent mood. Our patriotism comes to the fore when we play cricket against Pakistan or when there is an over war. At all other times we think only of ourselves, our families, or caste, or religion in case of minorities. We don’t take pride in being Indian. Even if we do, our pride doesn’t translate in doing good job, following rules meant for common good, and doing good for society our country. Compare this with the pride with Germans, Japanese, Koreans, Chinese, or Americans behave even as they take care of themselves. Our narrow selfishness usually overrides all other considerations. This has nothing to do with education or economic well being. We find this in affluent classes as well. This translates by default in low voting percentage.

4) The BJP’s trajectory doesn’t look good as a party which can put out across government’s good work or as a party which can counter oppositions political tactics or as party which is a step ahead of opposition. (Please See Scenario 2019 link above for more about the BJP) (Update December 8, 2019). BJP’s arrogance and laziness (it was a lazy opposition too -barring some exceptions and until Modi arrived on national scene) is already putting off its supporters.

5) Social media will not be enough to counter anti-Modi media. Polling percentage can fall in a non-crisis situation particularly when we haven’t built a strong national identity. When there is no emotion driving us local, caste, religion factors dominate. I have said that gratitude is not a strong enough emotion to make people come out and vote.

The above scenario doesn’t look rosy for Modi’s second term because he has come up on a Tripod Support.   Even if one leg wobbles, he will be shaky. It will be a pity, because he likely to be the best PM so far. Remember, even Atal Behari Vajpayee lost in 2004 despite doing well as PM and despite being seen as secular.

It is safe to assume that the PM knows this. He is much ahead of most (should I say all?) of us -as Raghuraman Rajan recently said. He is also a very quick learner. Therefore it is quite likely that he will make directional corrections. His repeated statements that his government is working to a plan gives credence to this.

Next wave of actions

What will he do that we haven’t yet seen? It is a matter of speculation.

He will  focus on what can be done and be visible in next four years .

  1. We are likely to see much better actions on black money.
  2. We are likely to see good actions in agriculture sector.  I expect that Modi knows that rural votes still depend on state of agriculture no matter how well ‘Make in India’ takes off. There have been some tentative steps on APMC s etc. Expect more comprehensive actions. These things take time. He has to find right people too.
  3. In Silicon Valley he said that ‘Governance is going to be his first priority’. We expect major administrative changes in the ministries concerned with all the areas where progress is poor.  We can expect induction of more talent through lateral entries, even at the cabinet level. There have been many changes in the Finance and Home Ministry. His Goverment has been dismantling the the sleazy nexus of power, cash and influence at the heart of the Delhi Durbar. Read this http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/transfer-posting-raj-ends/1/531599.html Many of these changes don’t grab headlines but their effects will be seen soon(update December 8, 2015).
  4. His party, the BJP has so far not been a match to the Congress and its eco-system. He will know that the the battle for the second mandate won’t be won using social media and non-party support alone. So we can expect BJP organization level actions.  There is no evidence so far. But we will see some actions in next two or three months.
  5. We can expect more from Modi Government during last two years of his present term on corruption. We are likely to see prominent Congress leaders and other big fish to be brought to book. (Update December 7, 2019 NH case against Sonia and Rahul Gandhi is gathering pace. Also see http://indiafacts.org/and-you-thought-modi-was-doing-nothing/ for more info various Big Fish cases) This has been the demand of Modi’s supporters and many others. The unchecked crime and corruption by the big for all these sixty years has been the root cause of cynicism of Indians and anger towards the Congress. The Modi Sarkar wasn’t seen to be acting decisively in this area. This will surely change.
  6. Expect Netaji files to be declassified. (Update: around Diwali 2015 PM Modi announced that Netaji files will be de-classified on Januray 23, 2016 to mark his birth anniversary)
  7. Even if all the above things are done, PM Modi will still be on a vulnerable Tipod. He is trying to win new support base outside his core nationalist base.  There is no evidence yet that he is succeeding.  If this is so, he will have to give strong emotional reasons for us Indians to go out and vote for him in large numbers.
  8. His handling of Pakistan has confounded both his critics and admirers. The Congress has been reduced to criticizing both cancellation of talks and sudden talks with Pakistan. He is trying to isolate Pakistan on terror charges and at the same time is seen to be engaging with Pakistan. He will keep everyone guessing. There is no doubt that Pakistan has been the biggest external bugbear for India for all times. It has inflicted huge economic and psychological costs on us while hurting itself. Pakistan is not just a rogue state, but is a state which is now at risk due to its own internal contradictions of supporting terror and fighting terror,  taking pride in being a Muslim State and killing Muslims. Its people are suffering.  

 PM Modi will surely like to solve the Pakistan Problem. Every Indian PM wished to be seen to be solving the problem. But PM Modi  has put himself in a good position for doing this. This will be one emotional reason for us to go out and vote for him again. (Update December 8, 2015)

India: Scenario 2019

Part 5 of series on #modiplan

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Links to previous posts in this series

Criticism of Modi Sarkar:  https://raverantreflect.wordpress.com/2015/11/30/modi-sarkar-areas-of-my-concern/

In praise of Modi Sarkar:  https://raverantreflect.wordpress.com/2015/11/28/modi-sarkar-priority-security-and-economy/

My expectations from Modi Sarkar:  https://raverantreflect.wordpress.com/2015/11/25/pm-modi-my-expectations/

PM Modi’s confounds both critics and admirers:  https://raverantreflect.wordpress.com/2015/11/21/pm-modi-confounding-critics-and-admirers/

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I will try to paint a plausible scenario of 2019 here. I will follow it up with what might be PM Modi’s game plan in my next post.

Excerpts from article https://raverantreflect.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/pm-modis-game-planver1.pdf published on Oct 8, 2015 and some updates . The above article was written before the Bihar Elections and the stunning defeat of Modi.

Update 9December 3, 2015) : Gujarat civic polls has seen BJP maintaining its hold in urban areas while Congress has made inroads in rural areas.

Likely scenario of 2019

From the above directional analysis it is very likely that India will do well (by 2019) in external security, economic growth, infrastructure development, social inclusion and job creation. The job creation, won’t be to the fullest potential due to some the above directional issues.

Based on what we know today, we will generate a much higher proportion of the so called clean energy but we are not likely to have cleaner air, water, and food. Many more people will have food. We will have more jobs but we will spend hours battling traffic on two wheelers. The smart cities when they come to exist risk being swamped by migration from farm lands. (because of lack of reforms in agriculture sector)

Today’s poor will have more and will be economically empowered. There will be less corruption, but we will not be yet moving to be a just society in which a poor man can knock the doors of justice and get it. The poor will get to consume more (that is good) but the greed of everyone else will continue increase. We will have green highways (trees along it) but our farmlands and hinterlands may remain barren.

The minorities may still continue to live in imaginary fear thanks to Congress, its clones and its supplicant media. India will not have discovered its Hindu* civilization soul. It would not have known its true history. It would not have known what was wrong about its past and what was good.  We will continue to be fed by, what Arun Shourie describes as Macaulay’s and Lenin’s Offspring (Indian intellectuals) and their respective overseas masters.

Modi will not have dented Congress culture** much whether in political or in economic space. Congress Mukta Bharat will not have been a reality by 2019.

BJP: (added this section on December 7, 2015)

The state of the BJP will be crucial if Modi is to win a second term in 2019. It is subject for a separate post, but here are some ‘directional’ clues:

  1. It was ineffective as opposition (barring Ayodhya movement and 2g \ Coalgate blockade of Parliament in 2013\ 2014)
  2. It is ineffective as a ruling party at center despite absolute majority. Same in states where it is power.
  3. Despite a record membership size BJP can’t mobilize public opinion. It allowed Congress to run away with ‘intolerance’ campaign based on sheer lies.
  4. It’s spokespersons barring exceptions are weak, inarticulate, fumbling type.
  5. It has allowed its social media expertise to evaporate \ migrate
  6. Most of its MPs and MLA’s are sleeping and inaccessible.
  7. Its bad performances in Bihar polls and Gujarat rural local body elections are guides to its future

Modi, despite his government’s good work,  will probably have to carry the NJP’s burden on his shoulders in 2019 too.

Modi’s chances in 2019

Given the above scenario, what are the chances of Modi Govt getting reelected in 2019? What more might Modi Sarkar do?  I will explore these questions in my next post.

Notes:

* The word Hindu or Hinduism stands for the essence of our civilization -every human has a right and duty (Dharma) to seek own truth (God). All paths lead there.  The Sanskrit word ‘Dharma‘ means duty unto oneself. It doesn’t point any particular form of God, customs, codes, or laws. All these change and must change depending on context. That’s why Hindus have crores of Gods and more are welcome. That no one has right to kill, convert, or harass others on the basis a preferred god is implicit in the essence of Hinduism.

One can also use the word Sanatana Dharma or Vedik Dharma. Sanatana means eternal (not old). Vedas and much of the Hindu philosophical and social literature have been the earliest and the longest surving, and biggest open source endeavors known to mankind. One excellent resource is Portrait Of A Nation: History Of Ancient India by Kamlesh Kapur They aren’t old fashioned at all. In fact are they are more modern, progressive, and relevant today than the words like ‘tolerance’ ‘secular’ ‘plural’ etc -which are so limited.

** Congress culture: The culture of dividing and fragmenting on the basis of everything religion (partition), caste (reservations), languages (linguistic re-organization of states), ethnicity. The culture designing and perpetuating complicated system of controls, sops, exemptions, and discretionary powers for favoring or punishing. The culture of detesting anything that is Hindu and anything that predates the Muslim and British invaders.