India: Scenario 2019

Part 5 of series on #modiplan

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Links to previous posts in this series

Criticism of Modi Sarkar:  https://raverantreflect.wordpress.com/2015/11/30/modi-sarkar-areas-of-my-concern/

In praise of Modi Sarkar:  https://raverantreflect.wordpress.com/2015/11/28/modi-sarkar-priority-security-and-economy/

My expectations from Modi Sarkar:  https://raverantreflect.wordpress.com/2015/11/25/pm-modi-my-expectations/

PM Modi’s confounds both critics and admirers:  https://raverantreflect.wordpress.com/2015/11/21/pm-modi-confounding-critics-and-admirers/

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I will try to paint a plausible scenario of 2019 here. I will follow it up with what might be PM Modi’s game plan in my next post.

Excerpts from article https://raverantreflect.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/pm-modis-game-planver1.pdf published on Oct 8, 2015 and some updates . The above article was written before the Bihar Elections and the stunning defeat of Modi.

Update 9December 3, 2015) : Gujarat civic polls has seen BJP maintaining its hold in urban areas while Congress has made inroads in rural areas.

Likely scenario of 2019

From the above directional analysis it is very likely that India will do well (by 2019) in external security, economic growth, infrastructure development, social inclusion and job creation. The job creation, won’t be to the fullest potential due to some the above directional issues.

Based on what we know today, we will generate a much higher proportion of the so called clean energy but we are not likely to have cleaner air, water, and food. Many more people will have food. We will have more jobs but we will spend hours battling traffic on two wheelers. The smart cities when they come to exist risk being swamped by migration from farm lands. (because of lack of reforms in agriculture sector)

Today’s poor will have more and will be economically empowered. There will be less corruption, but we will not be yet moving to be a just society in which a poor man can knock the doors of justice and get it. The poor will get to consume more (that is good) but the greed of everyone else will continue increase. We will have green highways (trees along it) but our farmlands and hinterlands may remain barren.

The minorities may still continue to live in imaginary fear thanks to Congress, its clones and its supplicant media. India will not have discovered its Hindu* civilization soul. It would not have known its true history. It would not have known what was wrong about its past and what was good.  We will continue to be fed by, what Arun Shourie describes as Macaulay’s and Lenin’s Offspring (Indian intellectuals) and their respective overseas masters.

Modi will not have dented Congress culture** much whether in political or in economic space. Congress Mukta Bharat will not have been a reality by 2019.

BJP: (added this section on December 7, 2015)

The state of the BJP will be crucial if Modi is to win a second term in 2019. It is subject for a separate post, but here are some ‘directional’ clues:

  1. It was ineffective as opposition (barring Ayodhya movement and 2g \ Coalgate blockade of Parliament in 2013\ 2014)
  2. It is ineffective as a ruling party at center despite absolute majority. Same in states where it is power.
  3. Despite a record membership size BJP can’t mobilize public opinion. It allowed Congress to run away with ‘intolerance’ campaign based on sheer lies.
  4. It’s spokespersons barring exceptions are weak, inarticulate, fumbling type.
  5. It has allowed its social media expertise to evaporate \ migrate
  6. Most of its MPs and MLA’s are sleeping and inaccessible.
  7. Its bad performances in Bihar polls and Gujarat rural local body elections are guides to its future

Modi, despite his government’s good work,  will probably have to carry the NJP’s burden on his shoulders in 2019 too.

Modi’s chances in 2019

Given the above scenario, what are the chances of Modi Govt getting reelected in 2019? What more might Modi Sarkar do?  I will explore these questions in my next post.

Notes:

* The word Hindu or Hinduism stands for the essence of our civilization -every human has a right and duty (Dharma) to seek own truth (God). All paths lead there.  The Sanskrit word ‘Dharma‘ means duty unto oneself. It doesn’t point any particular form of God, customs, codes, or laws. All these change and must change depending on context. That’s why Hindus have crores of Gods and more are welcome. That no one has right to kill, convert, or harass others on the basis a preferred god is implicit in the essence of Hinduism.

One can also use the word Sanatana Dharma or Vedik Dharma. Sanatana means eternal (not old). Vedas and much of the Hindu philosophical and social literature have been the earliest and the longest surving, and biggest open source endeavors known to mankind. One excellent resource is Portrait Of A Nation: History Of Ancient India by Kamlesh Kapur They aren’t old fashioned at all. In fact are they are more modern, progressive, and relevant today than the words like ‘tolerance’ ‘secular’ ‘plural’ etc -which are so limited.

** Congress culture: The culture of dividing and fragmenting on the basis of everything religion (partition), caste (reservations), languages (linguistic re-organization of states), ethnicity. The culture designing and perpetuating complicated system of controls, sops, exemptions, and discretionary powers for favoring or punishing. The culture of detesting anything that is Hindu and anything that predates the Muslim and British invaders.

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