To the Outraging Fringe on Alwar Killing

To the outraging of fringe over alleged killing by a ‘gaurakshaks’ in Alwar I say:

1) Since police have arrested the ‘alleged suspects’ and investigating the episode wait for the police to complete their work and file charge sheet. You will know the truth – it may be nothing do with cows, personal rivalry or any such things. Even if it is, the accused will get punished.

2) If you argue that ‘oh police and courts take too long and don’t do a good job’, please protest and demand thorough reform of judiciary and legal profession and policing (surveillance, prevention, detection, and prosecution ). Almost every major crime -be it murder, rape, or rioting ) happens because of poor policing and a glacial and gamed judiciary. It takes decades to convict ( if at all) and then convicts like Lalu roam free. If you are not demanding this you are a hypocrite.

3) If you are unwilling to do 1 or 2 above, accept the above crime as an expression of anger of some elements of Hindus due to being at the receiving end of your communal politics which has caused restrictions on Hindu traditions, exodus of Kashmiri Pandits, killing of RSS and BJP workers, Islamization of parts of Bengal, Kerala, and UP, glorification of Muslim terrorists and stone pelters who help terrorists. All this has been coming on top of centuries of genocide of Hindus by Muslim rulers, destruction of thousands of temples, and forcible conversions and rapes of Hindu women by Muslim rulers. Since you justify terror and Muslim mob’s violence on the basis of some historical wrongs, you should have no problem in this 3 rd option. This perfectly fits in with your model of thinking.

Cow protection is here to stay. It is part of the ethos of this civilization. A huge majority reveres cows. That’s why it is one the directive principles of our Constitution and almost every state has laws for cow protection -enacted when even the Hindu hater Congress was in power. Learn to respect what the majority reveres whatever may be your individual opinion. It also respects Bhagwan Ram and Krisha. That’s the simple fact of life.

For records, I and ( I think almost every Hindu) do not support killings whatever may be the provocation. The crime must be investigated for its motives and culprits must be punished. But I am very keen to see the existing convicts to serve their sentences. There must be first cum first serve for this also. Right?

If you refuse to accept any of the above. keep shouting. Majority of of this country doesn’t read or watch your partisan outrages. They have a good measure of you. They don’t speak except through the ballot.

You will continue to lose elections and stay as a fringe of India.

Advertisements

The ‘Theory of Akhilesh Win’ and BJP

Image source: myind.net

 

Assembly elections in UP and other states are around the corner.  Desperate to stop Modi juggernaut, alliances are being made and unmade. Here is one in UP

UP’s Mahagathabandhan =Akhilesh’s SP-+Mulayam’s old guard + -Congress + -RLD Other local parties too are coming together on ‘secular’ platform.

The pluses and minuses change daily like in a soap opera. The Yadav family drama has caught the fancy of our pseudo-everything main stream media. Very eager to see Modi humbled and bundled out, the media clutches at every tenuous thread to prop any challenger -Kejriwal, Hardik, Mayawati, Mamata, and Rahul being air dropped between his vacations. Media’s latest knight in shining armour is Akhilesh.

The ‘Theory of Akhilesh Win’

Media’s ‘Theory of Akhilesh Win’ goes like this: SP faced anti-incumbency. With his bold gambit of throwing out old guard Akhilesh would overcome negative performance and image of his own government. The EC dutifully gives him the ‘Cycle’ instead of freezing the symbol. Akhilesh’s youth and Muslim vote in pocket and some laptops would be enough to sweep aside Modi’s BJP.

Then the soap opera’s conductor adds a twist to the script. The father, the son, and the uncles would soon get together for a family selfie. Our media spinners spin a new sub-theory -Maulana’s return would bring back Muslim votes which would have been captured by Mayawati.

Mayawati’s vote trawler

She has a trawler with her vote-fishing net having 97 floats thrown out in UP’s waters muddied by caste and Muslim factors. Mayawati stares at her fishing net’s 97 bobbing nodes and wonders whether to focus on Muslims or her wads of SC votes.

Congress, seeking a semblance of relevance, declares its alliance with Akhilesh. Our media is ecstatic.

Politics is changing, opposition doesn’t get it

This is how electoral politics has played out all along in India -deals, counter deals, back deals, reward the rebels, encash votebanks of castes and be very afraid of Muslim vote.

If one looks at the enthusiastic support by common people to demonetization, one knows that India under its PM’s leadership has already changed and it is changing. When Modi exhorts BJP to be transparent about its funding, one can assume that he is throwing another challenge to the political class.

By this time, details of BJP MPs’ and MLAs’ cash deposits from November 8th to December 30th must be under processing.

Modi has irrevocably altered India’s political economy. He is combining a revamped and bigger subsidy regime with a business-friendly environment and infrastructure development with boosting small and tiny businesses through Mudra loans. Demonetization, e-transactions and GST are ushering in a faster economy.  A grocer, a shoe shine wala and every ordinary Indian have tasted the advantages of digital economy and what it means to get transfers of subsidies and payments directly in one’s bank account.  In rural households, LPG connections are replacing smoking chullahs. She knows that her ‘notes’ are safer in her bank than in her kitchen. She feels empowered and is no longer a beggar that the Congress had reduced her to be. She is a tough task master. Read more https://www.myind.net/silent-revolution-going-indias-noisy-democracy

Right under the nose of opposition political parties and media, Modi is transforming India’s politics too. While they are creating fiction of intolerance, church attacks, and Dalit deaths, India’s politics is changing from job reservations to livelihood and wealth creation, from fear of technology to embracing it and innovating, from mere demands to people’s participation as seen during demonetization crunch, from main stream media to social media and specialty media. That’s why some ’eminent’ journalists are clamoring for gagging the social media.

Public mood is changing from cynicism about crime and scams to taking on the monsters of black money  and terror.  When else would you find the Prime Minister and the most watched and followed politician launching BHIM app for person to person transfer funds based on indigenously developed technology?

Opposition parties are scared of Modi’s budget coming right before the polling for assembly elections begins. They know that something has changed but they don’t get what -conditioned as they are by decades of Congress style of politics.

But what about the BJP?

I had written in my article on June 12, 2016

“The worrying fact is that BJP is playing the game set up by its opposition.”  Read more https://www.myind.net/elections-bjps-tough-road-ahead

At that time, BJP lacked an overarching emotive appeal that would transcend caste and religion considerations. Surgical strikes against Pakistan and the war on black money which has reached every household are those overarching issues now. From its towering leader, BJP couldn’t have asked for more. Then there are powerful local issues like bleak law and order, communal riots, and Kairana exodus.  Akhilesh has nothing to show and everything to hide for his rule of five years.

As I write this, I am aware of RSS’s Manmohan Vaidya’s statement on reservations at the Jaipur Literature Festival. The opposition and main stream media are quite thrilled because they are good at twisting facts to suit them.  For an ever-defensive BJP, this provides another reason to stay on back foot. If BJP snatches defeat from the jaws of victory, this would be an excuse like it was in Bihar elections. The reason wasn’t valid in Bihar of 2015. It will be even less valid in UP and India of 2017.

You can’t learn how to win from losers of 2014. You can surely learn something from the winner, your top leader and India’s PM -work on your message and deliver it aggressively.

Is BJP afraid of losing UP ? 

Afraid to do anything ‘wrong’ lest it doesn’t win, it stitches an alliance of castes and plans to select candidates accordingly. BJP hears about Akhilesh-Congress alliance and it goes on defensive. It forgets its own PM’s huge achievements and its declared poll planks -surgical strikes and demonetization. On top of allotting tickets to Congress and BSP rebels it welcomes a thoroughly discredited ND Tiwari in its fold. BJP later plays down the whole sordid episode after a huge protest by its supporters on social media. In 2012, BJP had welcomed BSP’s Babu Singh Kushwaha infamous for NRHM scam.  In 2004, it had welcomed strongman and history sheeter DP Yadav.

Worse, when its workers die at the hands of leftists and jihadis in states like Kerala, It doesn’t take the state governments to task. It ignores Hindu traditions to be trampled by foreign-funded NGOs emboldened by a lopsided judicial overreach.  Our pseudo-secular opposition doesn’t see anything wrong in casteist and minority appeasement politics and letting corrupt contest elections. Is BJP afraid of bad press?

BJP may sweep polls, but we need better politics from it

Union Budget will most likely consolidate and build upon Modi Government’s pro-poor and development reputation. Modi’s rallies in UP will be another big factor. These factors and the emotive and substantive issues mentioned above may transcend Congress politics. UP’s main parties SP and BSP are not likely to come together. Therefore, it is quite possible that BJP will sweep the UP polls. But we expect far better politics and communication by the largest political party.

 

The above article was first published at: https://www.myind.net/theory-akhilesh-win-and-bjp#.dpuf

Indians are getting the big picture about DeMonetisation that the ‘Intellectuals’ are missing

Millions of ordinary Indians are enthusiastically supporting demonetization because they understand it.

Ordinary Indians know that in demonetization and what follows it, they have a once in a life time opportunity to leave a better India for their children.

Well below the radars of the media and the political parties, India has been changing silently. The change gathered pace under the technology savvy leadership of the indefatigable PM Modi.

Some time back, I wrote about India’s technology powered silent revolution-

“A silent revolution is going on in India’s noisy democracy. So silent that it easy to miss it amid our politics of protests. India’s capacity to transform itself is getting better.

India is leapfrogging ahead of advanced economies through pervasive use of technology in governance and public services. Indians are switching from being beggars of State to being participative and being demanding citizens.”

(Read https://www.myind.net/silent-revolution-going-indias-noisy-democracy )

Press headlines, TV news tickers, pundits and economists and political parties miss the above technology enabled revolution of Digital India.

But what they are now missing is much bigger.

There have been straws in the wind.  PM Modi’s campaign made over a crore people give up LPG subsidy. This was unprecedented. Compare this gesture of goodwill by a large and vocal section of population with that of all pervasive cynicism of decades of Sonia and Congress raj.

Modi-led BJP and NDA swept the polls due to anger towards Congress misrule and due to his promise of development. Many thought, the pundits were sure, and the opposition hoped that BJP and NDA’s victory was just a wave or a tide and that it would subside or turn soon. The Delhi and Bihar elections seemed to confirm this.

Then the surgical strikes against Pakistan happened.  It won every Indian’s approval. As opposition was trying to pick non-existent holes and question whether surgical strikes really happened or not using Pakistani sources, PM Modi announced the big bang demonetization.

Economists may give out sophisticated predictions about this that and the GDP,  but even the illiterate person knows that ‘notes’ are necessary for all the above crimes because he had been made to hand them under the table or he had to do with less ‘notes; because the middleman would keep the rest. They know implicitly that if notes are crucial to run their lives, they are even more crucial to turn the wheels of crime silently and secretly. Women, who by habit squirrel away tiny bundles of notes to tide over emergencies, get this even better. They know that they have nothing to hide but the criminals need the secrecy of notes.

But they had become accustomed to see politicians protecting those of their ilk. No one had imagined that a Modi would come and break the back of the corrupt and make the criminals run for cover.

They now know that the PM is on their side and that he is taking on the entire establishment. He truly is their PM.

The demonetization brought them a once in a life time opportunity to do something for their country as a part of their day to day work. Their PM is asking them to suffer the queues (which they are used to), to help each other (which they do often), to learn about cards and wallets and go cashless (didn’t they learn cellphones and WhatsApp?). For their efforts they would get a cleaner and more peaceful society. And they all rose to accept the challenge.

When PM Modi recently asked us to participate in maha yagya to defeat black money, corruption, crime, and terror he spoke a language alien to economists and those who have not gone beyond the western education. He spoke a language not known to the corrupt and criminals. But he spoke the language that Hindus and Muslims and Christians and everyone of India can understand. He spoke the language which even the illiterate connect with.

Yagya means worship and devotion through offerings (aahuti) to the sacred fire.

When one looks at the near universal support for demonetization among common people, when one can identify with their sense of purpose in willingly endure the inconveniences and unfortunate suffering in some cases, it is clear that the fight against corruption, crime, black money, and Jehadi terror has become a maha yagya. In PM Modi’s words:

मुझेविश्वासहैभाईयों, जिसदेशमेंसवासौकरोड़देशवासियोंकेआशीर्वादहोंवहांपरकालाधनकाखात्मासंभवहै, भ्रष्टाचारकाखात्मासंभवहै, भाईयोंबहनोंदेशअच्छीदिशामेंजानेकेलिएतैयारबैठाहैऔरमुझेविश्वासहैयेदेशइसमहायज्ञमें, ईमानदारीकेमहायज्ञमें, देशवासियोंकोकष्टझेलकरकेभीआहूतिदेतेमैंदेखरह

People now wait expectantly for Modiji’s every move against the ills that plague their country. They are willing to participate and do their bit for the country. They know this is their once in a life time opportunity to leave behind a better future for their children.

Indians are getting the big picture that the big are missing.

 

This article was first published  at: https://www.myind.net/indians-are-getting-big-picture-about-demonetisation-big-are-missing

PM Modi converts war on black money into people’s movement

(Image source myind.net)

On the night of Tuesday November 8, 2016 as the world was tuning into the early trends of the US Presidential elections, PM Modi opened a new front in his war against black money. Not just that, he has done the unthinkable. He has managed to convert a government’s war into a people’s movement.

Modi has been saying again and again that his government will do everything that is necessary to remove the curse that is black money and to help every Indian in coming out of poverty and improving their life. Whether it was during his 2014 election campaign or later, he vowed to bring black money into main stream economy and make its perpetrators pay for their crimes. Whether while forming SC mandated SIT or during Income Declaration Scheme 2016, he repeated his intent. But, Indians in general and his opposition in particular didn’t pay much attention to what their Prime Minister was saying.

Everyone has been jolted out of his or her ‘business as usual’ or ‘things won’t change much’ state. Mamata Banerjee, Arvind Kejriwal, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mayawati, and Lalu Prasad Yadav are clearly unhappy and are now contemplating ‘unity to counter the demonetization’. A large number of Indians are inconvenienced -such a major surgery on political economy would inflict some unavoidable pain – but almost every Indian is united in their conviction that PM Modi will deliver on his promises.

Overnight, Government’s war on black money became a people’s movement. Bank employees are going beyond call of their duty, restaurants and dhabas are offering free meals to those stranded without cash. From college students to housewives to daily wage earners to retired senior citizens almost everyone is going about their lives with stoic grace.

Some college students told me, ‘This (scrapping 500 and 100 notes) is good.  We will live in a better India’. A man at Chai tapri said ‘people making fun of Modi’s foreign travel don’t know what he is doing’.

The quips and jokes circulating on Whatsapp also reveal what is on people’s minds. ‘A well known politician has so many scrapped notes that he will manage to earn crores by selling them as kabadi ( trash). He was checking out kabadi rates on Tuesday night !’  Another person requested his contacts ‘Please don’t palm off old notes to your subjiwali etc. They may not have bank accounts to exchange notes and will face difficulties.’  Another quip, ‘I never knew a PM has so many powers’ -mockingly attributed to a former PM.

Indians are forming lines in front of ATMs and dispersing with disappointment, but with determination to behave well, when cash gets over.

As it would happen, there have been a few unfortunate instances. A few hospitals and doctors refuse to accept cheques. This too is understandable. There have been some unfortunate deaths in the aftermath of the currency shortage.  Hopefully, there will be mitigation of handling emergencies and starvation. For example, Maharashtra Government has ordered private hospitals to accept cheques (Read )

People also express concern that some businessmen and accountants might subvert the demonetization by laundering old notes via gold trading or payments in cash to low earning individuals. They are also apprehensive that wily politicians and businessmen will be back to their old games.

The demonetization project is still work in progress. It has earned praise from economists and global media. But much needs to be done. And much will be done.

PM Modi tapped into people’s frustration and anger about 60 years of Congress’ misrule that left India tottering on the brink of disaster. He didn’t stop after winning an election. Through his meticulously planned agenda he has increased his credibility. First proof of this came when lakhs and lakhs of Indians gave up LPG subsidy after his appeal. He helped people overcome their cynicism by optimism and willingness to do their part for their India.

Last Tuesday, PM Modi again staked his credibility to ask people for their cooperation in weeding out the menace of black money, corruption, and terror funding. He also has given some indication of his next step on benami properties.  Indians have responded magnificently to their Prime Minister’s call. A government project has become a people’s movement.

India’s economy and political economy are undergoing massive changes. Opposition parties are still grappling with them. These are big areas and are subjects for separate articles.

In world’s history there are very few parallels to the miraculous transformation of India that is underway.

Also read:

https://www.myind.net/silent-revolution-going-indias-noisy-democracy

 

This article was first published at myind.net here: https://www.myind.net/almost-overnight-pm-modi-converts-war-black-money-peoples-movement

Bangladesh doing more to fight Islamic Jihad than Mamata’s Bengal

This may shock many, but Sheikh Hasina’s Bangladesh seems more intent in curbing Islamic Jihad than Mamata Banerjee’s Bengal.  This is despite the fact that Bangladesh isn’t a great example of a State that protects its citizens against Islamic extremism.

Here is why.

Bangladesh has always been in news because of Jihadi terror targeting minorities on its soil.  On June 10 2016, a Hindu ashram inmate, Nityaranjan Pandey was hacked to death. On July 1, a Hindu priest, 70 years old Shyamonanda Das was hacked by machetes by three men on a motorcycle in Jhenaidah district, in Bangladesh. Before this, another Hindu priest was hacked to death in the same district.

More than 40 people have been killed in attacks in Bangladesh since February 2013.  Those killed include religious minorities (Hindus, Christians ) bloggers, academics, and gay rights activists (Read ) The number of those who killed in Islamic terror keeps going up with attacks like July 2016 Dhaka attack in which 29 people including 20 hostages (18  foreigners) were killed.

 

Multiple mobs of Muslims attacked Hindu temples and homes recently (Read )

Contrary to what experts and retired army officers think, Bangladesh Government denies any role of ISIS or Al-Qaida in these waves of attacks. It believes that is the work of local hard line Islamists groups. It is important to note that the Bangladesh Government acknowledges role of Islamists unlike our Bengal Government which denies any communal angle to incidents of mob violence against Hindus in the state.

Bangladesh has also been in news for the counter measures it has been taking against Islamic terror.  Bangladesh police detained about 900 people as a part of crackdown on militants after the series of terror attacks. They managed to kill the Dhaka terror attack planner (read ) In a police raid  called as Operation storm 26, nine militants were killed on July 26 ( read ) In  a series of other raids, the Bangladesh paramilitary Rapid Action force  killed 11 militants (read )

As is well known, in May 2016, Bangladesh executed Motiur Rehman Nizami, head of banned Jamaat-e-Islami party, after his conviction for genocide, rape, and massacres (read ) it has weathered the protests by Muslims against the execution.

What is happening in Mamata’s Bengal?

On January 29, 2015 in Kolkata’s suburb Usti more than 50 Hindu shops were ransacked, looted and gutted by jihadists. Police mostly watched as bombs were hurled at Hindus.  The victims were detained while attackers roamed free.  The media remained mute and so did CM Mamata Banerjee whose duty is to protect life of every citizen.

“While the situation for Hindus in Bangladesh is certainly dire, life has become increasingly difficult for Hindus in West Bengal, home to a Muslim-appeasing government and a breeding ground and safe haven for terrorists. For several years, West Bengal has suffered under apparent Muslim-planned riots designed to implement shariah, extract government concessions and grab more territory. “ (read )

In February 2015, The alleged abduction and rape of Tuktuki, a teen from rural West Bengal, by Muslim goons predictably failed to evoke media response and also that by the State Government of Bengal.  No prizes for guessing why.

“There are three points that need to be made in the context of Tuktuki Mandal’s tragedy. First, Hindu girls in their teens are being increasingly abducted and raped, or forced into marriage, by Muslim goons in those areas of West Bengal where there has been an extraordinary spike in the Muslim population, largely on account of illegal immigration from Bangladesh..” (read)

On 23rd April 2015, Muslim mobs in Falta (south 24 Paraganas District) unleashed large scale violence against Hindus. 50 Hindu houses and 10 shops were looted and damaged.  (Read )

On January 3 2016, 1.5 Lakh Muslims assembled near Kaliachak taxi stand. The mob blocked national highway, ransacked vehicles, burnt BSF van, and attacked the police station. The police ran away. The mob then destroyed and looted properties owned by Hindus. It molested Hindu women.  Despite this act of arson the Mamata government could arrest only nine and they could get bail since charges framed by police were not serious at all.  (Read)  All this happened despite the fact that Kamlesh Tiwari, who had allegedly said offensive things about the Prophet, had already been booked and arrested.

The fact is that in Bengal Police and BSF couldn’t protect themselves from the Muslim mob.

What has the Mamata Banerjee Government been doing? Has it been taking measures to prevent Jihadi violence or punish the culprits? No, her government has been doing the opposite.  It is turning a blind eye to growing Islamist violence and even encouraging the Jihadi terror elements.

 

Mamata Banerjee approved academic degrees of 10,000 unrecognized and Saudi funded madrasas and honorariums for Imams.

“In June of 2014, Mamata Banerjee made a highly questionable appointment, Rajya Sabha, to the upper house of the Indian Parliament.  Despite multiple warnings from the District Intelligence Bureau that had red-flagged him for instigating violence against Hindus, including alleged participation in the Kolkata and Canning riots and sheltering known terrorists, she selected Hassan Imran to serve as MP. Imran is a founder and self-admitted member of the radical student group, the Student Islamic Movement of India (SIMI), a recognized terrorist organization banned by the Indian government.“ (Read )

Pakistani gunsmiths trained locals in Bengal to manufacture guns used in Dhaka attack.

The AK-22 assault rifles made under the supervision of Pakistani gunsmiths at illegal arms manufacturing units in Malda (Bengal) were used in terror attack by Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) in Dhaka. This is based on the confessions made to NIA (National Investigation Agency) by one of the six terrorists arrested in connection to October 2 2014 Khagragarh blast in Bengal’s Burdwan District. The accidental blast had killed tow terrorists and revealed the existence of full-fledged explosives manufacturing units run by JMB that also carried our Dhaka attack.  The Mamata government of Bengal allowed such terrorist activities. (Read )

The Indo-Bangladesh border along Kaliachak (of the infamous Muslim mob attack on police station and BSF unit) Baishnavnagar in Malda is transit route for illegal arms, narcotics and Fake Indian Currency Notes. (Read )

Mamata Banerjee’s criticism of demonetization of Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes is clearly not without a reason. The scrapping of old notes by PM Modi government must be hurting the Islamic terror operations in Bengal. The fact that Mamata Banerjee is willing to co-operate with even CPM (her arch rivals) and anyone willing to oppose demonetization is also very telling. TMC and Communists treat Muslims as their vote bank.  80% of fake currencies are sneaked through 172 Km border along Malda district (read )

Several districts of Bengal are known as terror hubs with bomb making activities going unchecked. There are no signs that the state government will do anything to punish the guilty.

The Bengal CM recently supported ‘Triple Talaq’  (read ) It is clear that for Mamata Banerjee vote bank politics is more important than gender justice and safety of its citizens.

Taslima Nasrin, the exiled Bengali writer from Bangladesh, couldn’t live in Kolkata. She was forced flee from Bengal following death threats. Mamata Banerjee’s Bengal continues to be in that state.

In our main stream media UP and Bihar are often painted as examples of lawlessness depending on political convenience of media owners. Bengal’s poor record in law and order gets shielded. The truth is that people in Bengal, particularly, Hindus face violence by Muslim mobs, emboldened by their rising numbers and a state government that lets them run riot -just like those in UP.

The Mamata government hasn’t performed its constitutional duty of preventing terror and protecting its citizens. Instead, it has shown a blind eye to Islamic extremism with an eye on Muslim vote bank. Mamata Banerjee is willing to cooperate with anyone who is ready to oppose gender-justice, counter-terror, anti-black money measures by Modi Government.

Clearly, Sheikh Hasina’s Bangladesh has done more for curbing Islamic Jihad than Mamata Banerjee’s Bengal.

This article was first published at: https://www.myind.net/bangladesh-doing-more-fight-islamic-jihad-mamatas-bengal#.dpuf

Pakistan: What next after surgical strikes?

(Image source myind.net)

Indian Military lived up to the mandate given by PM Modi and his government to protect India against infiltration early today (September 29) morning in a stunning surgical strike 3 Kms inside LOC with Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. It destroyed 7 terror launch pads and eliminated 2 soldiers and about 38 terrorists who were getting ready to cross over to India. (source)

Indians have been angry with Pakistan for its terror war against India through attacks like 26/11, Patahnkot and Uri -just to name a few.  They expressed their anger and hope that their Government would match words by deeds (Read).

As the details of the daring operation started coming out Indians took to social media pouring out their joy and expressing their pride in their defense forces. In equal measure, they are expressing their happiness about having a real Prime Minister and his capable government who walk their talk.

For a while, Modi Government gave an impression to the world that it was banking on diplomatic efforts and  communication campaigns to deal with Pakistan. It described Pakistan as ‘Ivy League of terror’ and ‘following a toxic curriculum’ (Read ), and ‘exporter of terror’. It invited Pakistan Government ‘for a race in poverty reduction and development instead of violence’. It ordered reviews of Indus Water Treaty and MFN status of Pakistan. It pulled out of SAARC meeting in Pakistan. It started conducting naval exercises in Arabian Sea. All this, while Pakistan continued to violate ceasefire and to gather next batches of terrorists for crossing over to India. Pakistan may have thought it could continue and get away with its duplicity.

Even the world powers thought India will not escalate the situation beyond rhetoric.

May be not. Calls from John Kerry Secretary of State and Susan Rice, NSA of US to their counter parts in India may have been about these surgical strikes. It is possible that Modi Government kept USA in loop over the developments on ground.

There are reasons to believe that today’s surgical strike isn’t one-off event. Ever since assuming power in 2014, the Modi Government has been following a long term plan. On one level, the plan consists of offers to talk with Pakistan. Modi’s  impromptu visit to Pakistan was at this level.

At another level, India continued its diplomatic efforts to isolate and encircle Pakistan. Modi Government’s consistent efforts in documenting Pakistan’s role in various terror attack and pacts with Afghanistan are a part of this.  It is trying to contain China, Pakistan’s staunch ally,  through counterweights of US, Japan, and Vietnam at the same time showing willingness to make some concessions to it. It is trying to consolidate its friendship with Russia. It is using its trade and arms purchase power to extract help from various countries.

While doing all above and more, Modi Government has worked on our defense preparedness. It sorted out One Rank One Pension issue which was a big issue for our armed forces. When PM Modi told Arnab Goswami of Time Now that ‘our job is to talk (with Pakistan) the defense forces’ job is to protect our country on our borders’ it wasn’t rhetoric. He had articulated his doctrine in dealing with Pakistan. Not many got it right. Not many get it right even now.

Today’s surgical strike is just an element of this new doctrine.

PM Modi recently asked Pakistan in his Kozikode speech ” Is PoK is with you now? Is Bangladesh with you now? Sindh is with you. Balochistan is with you. But are things right there? Your leaders are making you fools in the name of Kashmir.”

He asked Pakistanis to think about which country got independence in 1947. PM Modi says one day the time will come when Pakistan citizens will take to the streets against terrorism. (Read )

It is unlikely that Paksitan will learn a lesson and stop terror. So does this ‘new doctrine’ include ‘an all out war’ with Pakistan? Probably not.

What next after the surgical strikes?

In Pakistan, its powerful army gets a chance to overthrow Sharif Government calling it ‘incompetent’ in dealing with India. There might be a military coup in Pakistan.

In appealing to people of Pakistan Modi is helping Pakistan’s endgame along. Pakistan is an unnatural and unstable state which can’t take care of its own people. It is propped up by external forces which are being used by Military and  Terror armies to draw sustenance. Pakistan’s so called ‘Islamic Identity’ hasn’t worked -it lost the then East Bengal, Baluchistan is raring to go, and Sindh wants to go too (Read https://www.myind.net/pakistan-has-endgame-begun )

One can expect protests in Baluchistan and Sindh to grow. There will be more efforts to contrast Pakistan’s lack of development with India’s progress and growing stature. There will be efforts to overcome Pakistani’s indoctrination of ‘Hate India’.  One can expect more unrest among common Pakistanis all over that country.

Modi’s  diplomatic efforts will be for exposing the illegitimacy of Pakistan. Like he reached out to Pakistani people, his communications will be addressed to citizens of world to build public pressure on their respective governments to stop helping a terrorist state. A military coup will turn world’s public opinion more against Pakistan.

PM Modi is likely to use trade diplomacy and economic means to persuade world powers. There may be efforts to show CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor) to be unviable because of internal unrest and there may be an offer of a package deal with China.  A well governed India will be positioned as an attractive partner to China. Indian Navy’s overseeing of Arabian Sea will also be leveraged.

America’s real politic revolves around trade and arms trade. Everything else is mere posturing. So does many western powers’ and Russia’s. India’s defense requirements are huge and an economically strong India can pay. Contrast this with Pakistan which needs American aid to buy a batch F-16 fighter aircrafts.

Muslim countries of Gulf which didn’t help Muslim refugees from Syria are unlikely to help Pakistan much more, give that their economies need rebuilding after the reverse oil shock (of falling prices)

Like Uri was seized as a tipping point with respect to international opinion for our surgical strikes, there will come a tipping point in average Pakistani’s opinion about their own government and India. There may be some covert strikes in Pakistan. One of the goals of such strikes will be to safeguard nuclear weapons from terrorists and rogue elements. World powers will surely have stakes here.

As this author said before, Pakistan’s endgame has begun. PM Modi will hasten it slowly (as they say one should). It keeps collateral damage low and improves chances of success. We should build on our strengths, learn strategic thinking, and have patience to achieve our goals. Let us support the Prime Minister by doing our part.

This article was first published by myind.net here

The Scorpene leaks: Is India ready for cyber war?

The  massive leaks of ‘signature data’ of six Scorpene submarines’ to be supplied to Indian Navy by DCNS, a company two thirds owned by the French Government, has rocked our defense establishment. The news of the data leak was published by ‘The Australian’.

Submarines are vital parts of any modern navy because of their ability to sneak underwater and strike. Stealth capabilities are essential for a submarine’s sneak and surprise attacks. When a submarine moves it emits engine and propeller noise, creates acoustic waves underwater, and emit infra read (heat) and other electromagnetic radiation.  Every submarine has characteristics patterns of the above signals. A submarine’s presence, location, and movement can be determined if its ‘signatures’ are known.

If ‘signatures’ of the Scorpenes meant for Indian Navy have fallen in enemy hands, their stealth capabilities are practically nullified.

‘The Australian’ reported (source ) that

“The leaked DCNS data details the secret stealth capabilities of the six new Indian submarines, including what frequencies they gather intelligence at, what levels of noise they make at various speeds and their diving depths, range and endurance – all sensitive information that is highly classified. The data tells the submarine crew where on the boat they can speak safely to avoid ­detection by the enemy. It also discloses magnetic, electromagnetic and infra-red data as well as the specifications of the submarine’s torpedo launch system and the combat system.”

Ascertaining the truth

The veracity of the leaked data is being ascertained, but the fact is that not just India, but Australia, Malaysia, Chile, and Russia are worried about the leaks of sensitive information related to their defense purchases from DCNS which are part of the leaked data.

It is quite likely that the India-bound Scorpene submarines’ stealth capabilities are severely compromised as per these posts in The Quint , Quartz  and Livefist Defense

On the other hand, Vice Admiral (Retired) Arun Kumar Singh says the leaked information would be commercial in nature and that INS Kalvari’s (one of the Scorpenes) noise ranging trials -which help pinpoint its audio fingerprint or signature -hasn’t been done yet. So according to Vice Admiral Arun Kumar Singh there is little possibility our Scorpene ‘signatures or ‘fingerprints’ falling into wrong hands.  (Source )

India’s Defense Ministry and Indian Navy’s experts will assess the extent of damage to Indian Navy’s preparedness levels over next a couple of decades and will decide what all needs to be done to contain it.

In the worst case scenario, Indian Navy faces a setback of a decade of efforts.

Was it a data theft or a hack?

‘The Australian’ further reports that the Scorpene data was ‘written’ in France for India in 2011 and was possibly removed from France by a former French Navy officer, a DCNS subcontractor. The data then was taken to a company to in Southeast Asia for a regional Navy. It was passed a third party to another company in the region before being sent on a data disk by regular mail.

From the above it appears that it was a data ‘theft’ by an insider and not a ‘hack’ as stated by Defense Minister Manohar Parrikar: “The Navy Chief has been asked to analyze as to what exactly has been leaked,” Parrikar told reporters today. “This came to my knowledge at 12 midnight. It looks like a case of hacking,” Parrikar said, adding that the, “first step is to identify if it is related to us.” (Source )

There is a critical difference between a theft and a hack. In modern digital world, a hack doesn’t need any physical access to a factory or a dockyard, design and engineering office, or a laboratory. Hackers can breach target computer systems from anywhere in the world and not just access data but they also trigger mala fide operations.

India’s preparedness for cyber warfare

Countries like China are developing massive cyberwar capabilities like espionage, intellectual property thefts, and decapacitating enemy operations.  For example, M. K. Narayanan, India’s then National Security Adviser, said his office and other government departments were targeted on December 15, (2010) the same date that US companies reported cyber attacks from China. (Source )

The successive Congress governments have undermined India’s defense preparedness in not just conventional military warfare but it also in cyber warfare.

If Scorpene data theft can cause so much damage, the consequences of cyber warfare can only be apocalyptic.  

Not much information on India’s cyber war readiness is available. One hopes that India’s defense preparedness plans include strong cyber warfare capabilities.

 

This article written by me was first published by myind.net here https://www.myind.net/scorpene-leaks-hurt-india-india-ready-cyberwar#.dpuf